Cooking has now become obsolete

[kuratowakiru]

food poison = 4%

therefore not getting poison = 96% => 0.96

*note: 1 = 100%

 

so eating 5 times mean 0.96 * 0.96 * 0.96 * 0.96 * 0.96 = 0.815 (taking his word for it, i cant be bother getting a calculator)

therefore chance of NOT getting food poison at all= 81.5%

100-81.5 = 18.5 % of getting poison.

 

MATH!

[webskorpion]

... I cant select 5 bacon and eggs to eat and have a 4% chance to get foodpoisoned...

 

If you eat 100 cornbread, you will get food poisoning 4 times on average.

 

If you eat 100 venison stew, you will get food poisoning 4 times on average.

 

Cornbread = 4 Max Stamina so 100 Cornbread = 400 Max Stamina

 

Venison stew = 50 Max Stamina so 100 Venison stew = 5000 Max Stamina

 

Venison stew causes, relative to Max Stamina, significantly less food poisoning.

 

You have to participate much less in the negative lottery with venison stew. Higher quality food has a benefit for the player. The point is that players have an incentive to cook higher-quality food and look after the crop.

 

Since you can eat enough in the base (50 points above display), food poisoning in the higher game has little meaning. If I go on a tour for several days, I'll take vitamins or a stack of quality food into my inventory.

 

(Unfortunately, I can only speak very little English. I have used translation program German – English.)

[Morloc]

I would think, even if you ate 5 of the same foods with the same chance it will always be 4%......

 

Exaggerating the numbers sometimes helps to bring this stuff back to Earth...

 

Each shot I fire at you has a 1% chance of hitting (I'm far away).

 

If I shoot once...sure, 1%.

 

What if I shoot one million rounds at you? Intuitively you can reason that with 1,000,000 bullets being fired at you, you're going to get hit...a lot.

 

 

 

-Morloc

[ZombieSurvivor]

Exaggerating the numbers sometimes helps to bring this stuff back to Earth...

 

Each shot I fire at you has a 1% chance of hitting (I'm far away).

 

If I shoot once...sure, 1%.

 

What if I shoot one million rounds at you? Intuitively you can reason that with 1,000,000 bullets being fired at you, you're going to get hit...a lot.

 

 

 

-Morloc

 

numbers....even when combined with things I understand like getting shot at....still hurts my head.

 

If the enemy stand in front of me and he only has 1 bullet and 1% chance of hitting me. = 1% chance

If he had 5 bullets but had........oh forget it. screw math lol...

 

- - - Updated - - -

 

food poison = 4%

therefore not getting poison = 96% => 0.96

*note: 1 = 100%

 

so eating 5 times mean 0.96 * 0.96 * 0.96 * 0.96 * 0.96 = 0.815 (taking his word for it, i cant be bother getting a calculator)

therefore chance of NOT getting food poison at all= 81.5%

100-81.5 = 18.5 % of getting poison.

 

MATH!

 

See this I can understand..sorta...but still not seeing how 0.185 is the chance.....screw math lol.. i give up and leaving this thread now... I just gotta know....https://youtu.be/xs1ZNRcAThY

 

lol thanks all for trying to explain, I'm retarded and will never understand the math.

[Viktoriusiii]

numbers....even when combined with things I understand like getting shot at....still hurts my head.

 

If the enemy stand in front of me and he only has 1 bullet and 1% chance of hitting me. = 1% chance

If he had 5 bullets but had........oh forget it. screw math lol...

 

- - - Updated - - -

 

 

 

See this I can understand..sorta...but still not seeing how 0.185 is the chance.....screw math lol.. i give up and leaving this thread now... I just gotta know....https://youtu.be/xs1ZNRcAThY

 

lol thanks all for trying to explain, I'm retarded and will never understand the math.

 

 

You said you'll leave but one more try:

If you throw a dice, how high is the chance of getting a 6?

1/6 (16.6%)

If you throw it again, it is still 1/6th.

Again still 1/6th.

 

That does not mean that if you throw 5 dice, the chance of all dice landing on a 6 is 1 in 6.

Dice one: 1/6

Dice two: 1/6

Dice three: 1/6

Dice four: 1/6

Dice five: 1/6

 

 

Every dice has a 1/6 probability to be a six.

 

But the chance that ALL dice are a 6 are WAY lower right?

Chaces add up.

 

Same with a coin toss.

Toss it once its 50/50.

Every subsequent throw is a 50/50.

But getting the same result every time becomes rarer and rarer.

[ZombieSurvivor]

You said you'll leave but one more try:

If you throw a dice, how high is the chance of getting a 6?

1/6 (16.6%)

If you throw it again, it is still 1/6th.

Again still 1/6th.

 

That does not mean that if you throw 5 dice, the chance of all dice landing on a 6 is 1 in 6.

Dice one: 1/6

Dice two: 1/6

Dice three: 1/6

Dice four: 1/6

Dice five: 1/6

 

 

Every dice has a 1/6 probability to be a six.

 

But the chance that ALL dice are a 6 are WAY lower right?

Chaces add up.

 

Same with a coin toss.

Toss it once its 50/50.

Every subsequent throw is a 50/50.

But getting the same result every time becomes rarer and rarer.

 

Ahhhhhhh! lol

[Kalen]

Ahhhhhhh! lol

 

I'll give it a shot....

 

You have a 4% chance of getting food poisoning, as we know.

 

The question isn't "what is my chance of getting food poisoning on my 5th cornbread?", because the answer to that is 4%

The question is actually, "what is the chance I got food poisoning at least once after eating 5 cornbread"

 

I could give you the formula (or you can just look in this thread, it's been mentioned a couple of times) but the answer is about 18% chance.

 

As others have mentioned, sometimes its easier to think of it in terms of coins.

 

"what is my chance of getting tails on my 5th coin toss?". The answer is 50%

"what is the chance I got tails at least once after 5 coin tosses". I hope its obvious that it's not a 50% chance. It's about a 97% chance that 5 coin flips will produce at least 1 tails.

[Roland]

For the purposes of playing this game I could care less how you choose to think of it. But let me tell you that there is a reason that Casinos don’t want you to focus on the individual independent percent chance of winning and will instead push the idea that if you play just a few more times you’re due to win.

 

A fool and his money are soon parted and also eats only canned food in the game. But at least it’s just a game and if you really feel that the percent chance of vomiting is going to get higher with each meal you eat then no harm is done because canned food is plentiful.

 

Yes, when thinking strategically about future meals and realizing that if you have to eat 10 times vs 2 times to fill up there is going to be a greater chance to throw up there is merit in that—if you start cooking high quality meals.

But if you’ve gotten away with eating your last 30 cooked meals and about to eat your 31st and in reading this thread you now believe that your chance of throwing up is at 72% then please please please stay away from Vegas because they will clean you out.

[mr.natural]

Statistical chance works for large numbers, individual chances are like RNG.

Example: 1 chance in a 1.000 is predictable when applied to a 1.000.000 times. You are only 1 chance and it could be that you had that one chance in a million where you never get it. Praying to the RNG gods is the best guarantee, lol

(I have build a shrine dedicated to them)

[bobrpggamer]

Back to statistical math I guess. as said before I am blessed with a golden GED, but as far as certain things such as working in a 3D app and the X,Y,Z, I seem to understand that completely, but other than that I really do not understand much, such as ^ in an equation I have no ideas what that is.

 

I got poisoned again on day 9, so 2 times in 9 days with about 40-60 meals or so. I guess I puked again I was not really paying attention and ate 4 corn on the cob's, 4 baked potatoes and a bacon and eggs meal and I was good to go again, that's 9 chances to get poisoned again and I passed all die rolls. I had a lot of saved up spam, chili and salmon, but I am saving that for some long traveling.

 

Yes Roland, a fool and his money are soon parted, I am so far in debt due to impulsiveness I will paying it off for the next 20 years.

[RipClaw]

Back to statistical math I guess. as said before I am blessed with a golden GED, but as far as certain things such as working in a 3D app and the X,Y,Z, I seem to understand that completely, but other than that I really do not understand much, such as ^ in an equation I have no ideas what that is.

 

Go to https://www.wolframalpha.com/ and type in

 

plot 1-((1-0.04)^x),x=1..100,y=0..1

 

This gives you a visual representation of the overall probability at 100 meals that one of these 100 meals will give you food poisoning.

 

If you change "x=1..100" e.g. to "x=1..10" you will get the view for 10 meals in a row. That would be e.g. if you eat 10 grilled meat at once.

[Alphado-Jaki]

Hmm, I'm surprised at no one has discussed about interval estimation or Markov inequality, sticking with (joint) probability.

 

Also even no expected value of getting food poisoning or of required foods to fulfill to max.

[Jugginator]

What's hilarious is Roland is completely right along with people that think that a hard-4% means the more you eat the higher chance it'll get if you don't get poisioning. It's 4% wether you eat 100,000,000,000,000,000 times or 1 time. It's a roll. A programmed roll.

 

People that freak out over this crap are silly. Eat the good food for crying out loud. The game doesn't say "7 Days to Die is a friendly, flower picking simulation that holds your hand and ensures you'll have a grand time along puppies"

[Alphado-Jaki]

Comparing food poisoning with casino is hilarious.

 

I lose only odds if I miss gamble. I lose everything in stomach if I miss food.

The idea, that joint probability does nothing, conflicts with how game give small meaning to high tier food :

"Stew has the same poisoning prob with charred meat but with high food value, so it's better."

You just need some coffee.

[Marinxar]

I am reserving any serious thoughts on this . Although I do like a lot more depth in the food/farming, I know TFP is not done with the whole area of the game concerning food/water/stamina and how cooking/food/fishing/farming affects it. So wont get caught up on how it is at the moment.

 

I do hope to see that there will be more specialized dishes, that would justify farming skill costs. Food made with carrots give you +3 perception for 24h in-game etc. What I mean by justify, is at the moment you pretty easily get bacon & egg recipe, and with that you are set for the rest of the game.

[Birkenhoff]

So you guys are arguing on 15 sites about a 4% chance beeing a 4% chance.

I wouldn't recomment playing russian roulette but if you decide to, the possibility of not surviving is higher if you play 100 games instead of only one. Even if the chance per game is always equal. ...unless you decide to play russian roulette with a semi automatic gun. That wouldn't be a smart move.

 

If I stick to the topic of this thread:

Why is cooking obsolete? You probably have a farm running if you eat stew on regular a regular base. If one piece of the good stuff isn't that good I just eat two more from my stack.

 

And then there's Vitamins.

[ZombieSurvivor]

I'll give it a shot....

 

You have a 4% chance of getting food poisoning, as we know.

 

The question isn't "what is my chance of getting food poisoning on my 5th cornbread?", because the answer to that is 4%

The question is actually, "what is the chance I got food poisoning at least once after eating 5 cornbread"

 

I could give you the formula (or you can just look in this thread, it's been mentioned a couple of times) but the answer is about 18% chance.

 

As others have mentioned, sometimes its easier to think of it in terms of coins.

 

"what is my chance of getting tails on my 5th coin toss?". The answer is 50%

"what is the chance I got tails at least once after 5 coin tosses". I hope its obvious that it's not a 50% chance. It's about a 97% chance that 5 coin flips will produce at least 1 tails.

 

oh.....that actually makes a lot more sense, I understand now. thank you.... math..... mah....

 

- - - Updated - - -

 

Go to https://www.wolframalpha.com/ and type in

 

plot 1-((1-0.04)^x),x=1..100,y=0..1

 

This gives you a visual representation of the overall probability at 100 meals that one of these 100 meals will give you food poisoning.

 

If you change "x=1..100" e.g. to "x=1..10" you will get the view for 10 meals in a row. That would be e.g. if you eat 10 grilled meat at once.

 

Very cool! *thumbs up*

 

- - - Updated - - -

 

What's hilarious is Roland is completely right along with people that think that a hard-4% means the more you eat the higher chance it'll get if you don't get poisioning. It's 4% wether you eat 100,000,000,000,000,000 times or 1 time. It's a roll. A programmed roll.

 

People that freak out over this crap are silly. Eat the good food for crying out loud. The game doesn't say "7 Days to Die is a friendly, flower picking simulation that holds your hand and ensures you'll have a grand time along puppies"

 

Game is also not called "You May Get Sick Within 7 Days...And Die". :-P

 

EDIT: I cannot speak for everyone but I am trying to learn how the math is done so that I can understand how the game is talking. If I understand that precisely then I can incorporate that knowledge in to my strategy for dealing with hunger/eating system in this game. Just because a player "freaks out over this crap" or another way to put it, a player that wants to know how best to tackle this obstacle, is not silly. Rather it could be a player figuring out the most optimal way of eating.

[Kalen]

But if you’ve gotten away with eating your last 30 cooked meals and about to eat your 31st and in reading this thread you now believe that your chance of throwing up is at 72% then please please please stay away from Vegas because they will clean you out.

 

Is anyone in this thread saying that?

[ZombieSurvivor]

For the purposes of playing this game I could care less how you choose to think of it.

 

I mean, I kinda care thats why questions are posed here right?

 

A fool and his money are soon parted and also eats only canned food in the game. But at least it’s just a game and if you really feel that the percent chance of vomiting is going to get higher with each meal you eat then no harm is done because canned food is plentiful.

 

That is not a clear answer, rather feels like you are -See PM-

 

Yes, when thinking strategically about future meals and realizing that if you have to eat 10 times vs 2 times to fill up there is going to be a greater chance to throw up there is merit in that—if you start cooking high quality meals.

 

Agreed, I think that is simple enough for most to figure out early on.

 

But if you’ve gotten away with eating your last 30 cooked meals and about to eat your 31st and in reading this thread you now believe that your chance of throwing up is at 72% then please please please stay away from Vegas because they will clean you out.

 

huh?

[Viktoriusiii]

For the purposes of playing this game I could care less how you choose to think of it. But let me tell you that there is a reason that Casinos donآ’t want you to focus on the individual independent percent chance of winning and will instead push the idea that if you play just a few more times youآ’re due to win.

 

Well... actually there is a reason why certain methods are forbidden in casinos.

(Like the coin doubling method

 

1. put one coin on black/red; even/odd;

if you win -> go back to 1; if not continue

2. put double coins on it again;

if you win -> go back to 1; if not go back to 2

 

This method GARANTUEES you to win money, as long as you have an unlimited amount of money to start with. (and reasonably if you have ~x^12 times the money you want to start with)

 

Why? Because if you win on turn 1, you spent one coin and get 2 back (1 win)

if you win on turn 2, you spent 3 coins and get back 4 coins (1 win)

if you win on turn 3, you spent 7 coins and get back 8 coins (1 win)

...

 

 

Technicially this also works with every other chance based statistic, but a 1/50 chance ramps up super quickly.

 

 

But again: Food poisoning is not bad. I was one of the few advocates to move it to cooked foods to give canned foods some value (although 5 stamina is laughable).

What I am saying is that the punishment is a bad one. You just lose all your food. It adds nothing to the game. It is a ressource dump with no benefit. It should add something.

I gave an example very early on but here a slightly modified version:

 

Increase food poisoning chance by ~6%. Give it a "buffer" of 50% total that you need to fill up before you can get food poisoning again (at 10% per normal meal, that is 5 meals are safe, while higher percentage foods fill it up quicker so no exploit)

Lose 50% of your missing stamina (min 30 as base value) over time. You can take antibiotics/honey and so on to reduce the effect duration by half. And while you have it, you are attracting zombies in proximity and you are slowed down.

This way there is a gameplay effect, a counter measure and it is not as random, since it is way more likely to happen.

Gameplay effect means that you will have a harder time exploring, maybe needing ranged weapons, counter measures are antibiotics and always beeing full (its like alcohol. An empty stomach makes it worse) is reducing the overall effect and people will get it once in a while and not feel so anxious because if it happened to them, they can at least relax and know that they can eat up without having to fear it happening again in a while.

[ZombieSurvivor]

Well... actually there is a reason why certain methods are forbidden in casinos.

(Like the coin doubling method

 

1. put one coin on black/red; even/odd;

if you win -> go back to 1; if not continue

2. put double coins on it again;

if you win -> go back to 1; if not go back to 2

 

This method GARANTUEES you to win money, as long as you have an unlimited amount of money to start with. (and reasonably if you have ~x^12 times the money you want to start with)

 

Why? Because if you win on turn 1, you spent one coin and get 2 back (1 win)

if you win on turn 2, you spent 3 coins and get back 4 coins (1 win)

if you win on turn 3, you spent 7 coins and get back 8 coins (1 win)

...

 

 

Technicially this also works with every other chance based statistic, but a 1/50 chance ramps up super quickly.

 

 

But again: Food poisoning is not bad. I was one of the few advocates to move it to cooked foods to give canned foods some value (although 5 stamina is laughable).

What I am saying is that the punishment is a bad one. You just lose all your food. It adds nothing to the game. It is a ressource dump with no benefit. It should add something.

I gave an example very early on but here a slightly modified version:

 

Increase food poisoning chance by ~6%. Give it a "buffer" of 50% total that you need to fill up before you can get food poisoning again (at 10% per normal meal, that is 5 meals are safe, while higher percentage foods fill it up quicker so no exploit)

Lose 50% of your missing stamina (min 30 as base value) over time. You can take antibiotics/honey and so on to reduce the effect duration by half. And while you have it, you are attracting zombies in proximity and you are slowed down.

This way there is a gameplay effect, a counter measure and it is not as random, since it is way more likely to happen.

Gameplay effect means that you will have a harder time exploring, maybe needing ranged weapons, counter measures are antibiotics and always beeing full (its like alcohol. An empty stomach makes it worse) is reducing the overall effect and people will get it once in a while and not feel so anxious because if it happened to them, they can at least relax and know that they can eat up without having to fear it happening again in a while.

 

Wow, genius idea. I hope someone with influance reads and likes this idea and gets it to the ears of whoever at TFP that decides if its a go or no go for being part of the game. If I could give you rep again i would.

 

[bobrpggamer]

Thanks for the info, but probability of food poisoning is not something I consider when playing. It is just something that adds a little bad luck to your survival and I can only see the entire food poisoning being a problem for about a week in game, at that point you should have saved up enough canned food to fill back up. I have so much canned food stored that I could live off it easily, but as said the meals are worth the risk to fill up quicker and again save more canned for for a rainy day.

 

I liked making meals as a small little thing to do when hanging around after 22:00, now I do not really have the desire to do so.I chose master chef right when I started a new game to be able to make steak and egg and I noticed there seems to be a lack of eggs in A18, 1 out of 10 nests I get an egg or two and the nests are not as populated outside as in A17, but I could be wrong.

[ZombieSurvivor]

Thanks for the info, but probability of food poisoning is not something I consider when playing. It is just something that adds a little bad luck to your survival and I can only see the entire food poisoning being a problem for about a week in game, at that point you should have saved up enough canned food to fill back up. I have so much canned food stored that I could live off it easily, but as said the meals are worth the risk to fill up quicker and again save more canned for for a rainy day.

 

I liked making meals as a small little thing to do when hanging around after 22:00, now I do not really have the desire to do so.I chose master chef right when I started a new game to be able to make steak and egg and I noticed there seems to be a lack of eggs in A18, 1 out of 10 nests I get an egg or two and the nests are not as populated outside as in A17, but I could be wrong.

 

No doubt the chance of finding eggs have been nerfed in A18. I did not like it at first but it is forcing me not to rely on bacon and eggs as I always had in the past. So I'm on the fence still about the nerfing that has been done.

[Liesel Weppen]

I suggest implementing spoilable food by increasing the food poisoning chance over the age of the meal.

[Kalen]

EDIT: I cannot speak for everyone but I am trying to learn how the math is done so that I can understand how the game is talking. If I understand that precisely then I can incorporate that knowledge in to my strategy for dealing with hunger/eating system in this game. Just because a player "freaks out over this crap" or another way to put it, a player that wants to know how best to tackle this obstacle, is not silly. Rather it could be a player figuring out the most optimal way of eating.

 

So, I can see how this entire thread might be confusing. The game handles it pretty simply.... you eat something, you get a 4% chance of getting poisoned. All the other talk about "eating 5 times" or what have you, actually has nothing to do with how the game works.... its just how probability works.

 

It's obvious that you're better off eating a high stamina meal than multiple small stamina meals. But you can use the math to show how much better off you are.