How many points must you put in living off the land before farming becomes viable?

[ElCabong]

I'm not worried about food. The first four points I get when I start, one always goes to living off the land and I think that's still a great choice even though some YouTube pundits disagree.

 

Now I make a small farm and plant the seeds I find. It's never bigger than 5 plots yet that works out pretty good. If you don't get a seed you got a harvest of four. I worry about running out of potatoes though.

[eXSe]

All of them and have a big farm is a quick and dirty response.

[theFlu]

The way you describe your farming, you don't need any LotL; at least you didn't mention crafting seeds. If you don't craft them, then all the seed you plant are always a net gain.

 

If you want a farm that is likely to survive, and constantly produce a little something, 1 point is enough. This is with you crafting replacement seeds.

 

The second point is a tiny increase in profit, the third point guarantees an ever-growing farm with a good chance for great yields.

[Doc Saturn]

I've done a bit of modelling of the existing system. It is perfectly possible to run a farm with one point of LOTL, but not with 0. 

The problem with only 1 point is that you are liable to lose your farm if you don't have enough plants in the ground. It makes 

it slow to start up. You really need to have 3 plants to start with and only use a small proportion of your crop to get a farm that is 

sustainable. If you have more LOTL then farming becomes easy and as you can see from the model, stupidly plentiful. 

If you have no LOTL, good luck to you in trying to farm. 

 

Code: 

https://gist.github.com/stuart/574a3e552b1e7a941c7885ff74db91bf

 

Heres my data: 

 

Simple 7 days farming sim.

Running each simulation 100 times for 30 harvests.

====================================

------------------------------------

Start with 1 seeds. Harvest rate 2. Usage rate 10.0%

{:average_produce=>0, :average_lifespan=>2, :fraction_viable=>0.01, :average_max_plots=>1}

Start with 1 seeds. Harvest rate 2. Usage rate 50.0%

{:average_produce=>0, :average_lifespan=>3, :fraction_viable=>0.0, :average_max_plots=>1}

Start with 1 seeds. Harvest rate 2. Usage rate 90.0%

{:average_produce=>1, :average_lifespan=>2, :fraction_viable=>0.0, :average_max_plots=>1}

------------------------------------

Start with 1 seeds. Harvest rate 4. Usage rate 10.0%

{:average_produce=>463, :average_lifespan=>15, :fraction_viable=>0.49, :average_max_plots=>214}

Start with 1 seeds. Harvest rate 4. Usage rate 50.0%

{:average_produce=>16, :average_lifespan=>10, :fraction_viable=>0.16, :average_max_plots=>1}

Start with 1 seeds. Harvest rate 4. Usage rate 90.0%

{:average_produce=>12, :average_lifespan=>6, :fraction_viable=>0.02, :average_max_plots=>1}

------------------------------------

Start with 1 seeds. Harvest rate 6. Usage rate 10.0%

{:average_produce=>778555, :average_lifespan=>30, :fraction_viable=>1.0, :average_max_plots=>476364}

Start with 1 seeds. Harvest rate 6. Usage rate 50.0%

{:average_produce=>503, :average_lifespan=>30, :fraction_viable=>1.0, :average_max_plots=>15}

Start with 1 seeds. Harvest rate 6. Usage rate 90.0%

{:average_produce=>104, :average_lifespan=>30, :fraction_viable=>1.0, :average_max_plots=>1}

====================================

------------------------------------

Start with 2 seeds. Harvest rate 2. Usage rate 10.0%

{:average_produce=>0, :average_lifespan=>6, :fraction_viable=>0.01, :average_max_plots=>2}

Start with 2 seeds. Harvest rate 2. Usage rate 50.0%

{:average_produce=>4, :average_lifespan=>5, :fraction_viable=>0.0, :average_max_plots=>2}

Start with 2 seeds. Harvest rate 2. Usage rate 90.0%

{:average_produce=>3, :average_lifespan=>4, :fraction_viable=>0.0, :average_max_plots=>2}

------------------------------------

Start with 2 seeds. Harvest rate 4. Usage rate 10.0%

{:average_produce=>1499, :average_lifespan=>29, :fraction_viable=>0.97, :average_max_plots=>678}

Start with 2 seeds. Harvest rate 4. Usage rate 50.0%

{:average_produce=>46, :average_lifespan=>21, :fraction_viable=>0.39, :average_max_plots=>2}

Start with 2 seeds. Harvest rate 4. Usage rate 90.0%

{:average_produce=>25, :average_lifespan=>10, :fraction_viable=>0.02, :average_max_plots=>2}

------------------------------------

Start with 2 seeds. Harvest rate 6. Usage rate 10.0%

{:average_produce=>1759243, :average_lifespan=>30, :fraction_viable=>1.0, :average_max_plots=>1076338}

Start with 2 seeds. Harvest rate 6. Usage rate 50.0%

{:average_produce=>725, :average_lifespan=>30, :fraction_viable=>1.0, :average_max_plots=>22}

Start with 2 seeds. Harvest rate 6. Usage rate 90.0%

{:average_produce=>112, :average_lifespan=>30, :fraction_viable=>1.0, :average_max_plots=>2}

====================================

------------------------------------

Start with 3 seeds. Harvest rate 2. Usage rate 10.0%

{:average_produce=>0, :average_lifespan=>9, :fraction_viable=>0.02, :average_max_plots=>3}

Start with 3 seeds. Harvest rate 2. Usage rate 50.0%

{:average_produce=>7, :average_lifespan=>6, :fraction_viable=>0.0, :average_max_plots=>3}

Start with 3 seeds. Harvest rate 2. Usage rate 90.0%

{:average_produce=>7, :average_lifespan=>4, :fraction_viable=>0.0, :average_max_plots=>3}

------------------------------------

Start with 3 seeds. Harvest rate 4. Usage rate 10.0%

{:average_produce=>2002, :average_lifespan=>30, :fraction_viable=>1.0, :average_max_plots=>912}

Start with 3 seeds. Harvest rate 4. Usage rate 50.0%

{:average_produce=>55, :average_lifespan=>20, :fraction_viable=>0.37, :average_max_plots=>3}

Start with 3 seeds. Harvest rate 4. Usage rate 90.0%

{:average_produce=>32, :average_lifespan=>10, :fraction_viable=>0.03, :average_max_plots=>3}

------------------------------------

Start with 3 seeds. Harvest rate 6. Usage rate 10.0%

{:average_produce=>2701030, :average_lifespan=>30, :fraction_viable=>1.0, :average_max_plots=>1652495}

Start with 3 seeds. Harvest rate 6. Usage rate 50.0%

{:average_produce=>873, :average_lifespan=>30, :fraction_viable=>1.0, :average_max_plots=>26}

Start with 3 seeds. Harvest rate 6. Usage rate 90.0%

{:average_produce=>121, :average_lifespan=>30, :fraction_viable=>1.0, :average_max_plots=>3}

[ElCabong]

Farming is not viable with living off the land one. You harvest four but it takes five to make a seed. Two bad harvests in a row can wipe you out. This is a statistical problem. I don't think you can reasonably make a farm big enough for living off the land one to work.

 

Living off the land one doubles what you get from the seeds you find. You cannot sustain farming with it.

[hiemfire]

2 minutes ago, theFlu said:

The way you describe your farming, you don't need any LotL; at least you didn't mention crafting seeds. If you don't craft them, then all the seed you plant are always a net gain.

 

If you want a farm that is likely to survive, and constantly produce a little something, 1 point is enough. This is with you crafting replacement seeds.

 

The second point is a tiny increase in profit, the third point guarantees an ever-growing farm with a good chance for great yields.

 

Um... You're thinkin 5 plots of the same crop.

 

9 minutes ago, ElCabong said:

It's never bigger than 5 plots

 

5 total plots, mix of crops. Not going to be able to sustain a mixed farm that small, honestly that small it's really a decorative garden, with just planting the seeds you get back or craft from what you harvest.

 

@ElCabong By "viable" do you mean self sustaining?

[ElCabong]

2 minutes ago, hiemfire said:

 

Um... You're thinkin 5 plots of the same crop.

 

 

5 total plots, mix of crops. Not going to be able to sustain a mixed farm that small, honestly that small it's really a decorative garden, with just planting the seeds you get back or craft from what you harvest.

 

@ElCabong By "viable" do you mean self sustaining?

By viable I mean self-sustaining. You can reasonably expect to get more out of what you put into it.

[theFlu]

2 minutes ago, hiemfire said:

Um... You're thinkin 5 plots of the same crop.

Hmm, not really, I'm thinking of "farming" and "viability". As in, I did get that that's what El is doing, it being rather decorative. I kinda switched over to "actual" farming in my second paragraph, I should've maybe made that clearer.

[ricp]

The traders offer cheap and plentiful (raw) food, so there is absolutely no need to farm, and that's before you factor in the LotL nerf.

 

For me, farming simply "doesn't exist" in A20.

[theFlu]

2 minutes ago, ElCabong said:

You can reasonably expect to get more out of what you put into it.

That's basically the first point of lotl; you Can crash, but restarting requires exactly that one seed. Get to 3 seeds per plant and you're pretty safe with minimum points.

[hiemfire]

47 minutes ago, ElCabong said:

By viable I mean self-sustaining. You can reasonably expect to get more out of what you put into it.

 

Yah, with the change to farming that TFP did for A20 you're not getting that out of a mixed garden of only 5 plots total. 5 plots of each and you can start to see a positive return on time and material invested with just using what you get out of the farm to maintain it, though, as @theFlu says, there is a good chance of the farm dying out.

 

45 minutes ago, theFlu said:

Hmm, not really, I'm thinking of "farming" and "viability". As in, I did get that that's what El is doing, it being rather decorative. I kinda switched over to "actual" farming in my second paragraph, I should've maybe made that clearer.

Yah, the transition between them isn't that clear so I assumed you were basing the entire thing on the parameters that @ElCabong had laid out.

[Boidster]

1 hour ago, ElCabong said:

Farming is not viable with living off the land one.

 

As a data nerd myself I gotta point out that @Doc Saturn showed pretty clearly that you can.

 

2 hours ago, Doc Saturn said:

Start with 2 seeds. Harvest rate 4. Usage rate 10.0%

{:average_produce=>1499, :average_lifespan=>29, :fraction_viable=>0.97, :average_max_plots=>678}

 

The trick seems to be to limit your usage (using crops as food) until you have many plots going and maybe a bank of seeds just in case of a bad harvest. Like a real farmer would. "Don't eat the seed corn" and all that.

[ElCabong]

58 minutes ago, Boidster said:

 

As a data nerd myself I gotta point out that @Doc Saturn showed pretty clearly that you can.

 

 

The trick seems to be to limit your usage (using crops as food) until you have many plots going and maybe a bank of seeds just in case of a bad harvest. Like a real farmer would. "Don't eat the seed corn" and all that.

I have planted enough seeds to not trust that simulation. I have planted three corn and nothing gave me a seed. That means I can only plant two. Sure enough, I didn't get any seed from those two. Now you have to ask yourself do you really want to risk it.

 

If I had an infinite number of seeds then over time my results would mimic the simulation.

[theFlu]

10 minutes ago, ElCabong said:

I have planted enough seeds to not trust that simulation.

The simulation is likely correct; the conclusion from it is Not "nah, it'll be fine."

 

You plant three and are limited to two new seeds the moment you harvest no seeds.. this means you aren't keeping any spares. You'll need to. How many spares? There's no perfect amount, but 10 of a kind will be pretty hard to fail. Then again, if you have 10 seeds, why not plant them?

 

There's two main ways out from the risk a 3-seed farm poses at LotL 1 .. spend more skill points, or get more spare seeds. You'll just need to pick one

[Boidster]

46 minutes ago, ElCabong said:

I have planted enough seeds to not trust that simulation.

 

Okay, why don't you trust the simulation? Is it that the game does not actually work the way the XML indicates it does? Or that Doc Saturn got the math wrong? What is the evidence of either? Anecdotes and gut feelings aren't a strong argument.

 

Unless your argument is that the game doesn't work like it says on the tin, then the expected average return from 1 corn seed, at LotL 1, is 0.8 (4/5 of the raw corn you need for a seed) + 0.5 (50% chance for a whole seed) = 1.3 seeds. RNG can kill the farm, of course, but the odds are in your favor.

 

I'm not advocating against LotL 2 by the way. Great choice to improve your farming success rate. I'm just standing up for the math.

[Doc Saturn]

I think you need at least 5 or 6 plots of each crop in order to be sure of enough harvest to replace lost seeds, and that is with 1 level of LOTL. I seem to be doing fine that way in a test game but the farm really wasn't producing much at all until day 20 or so. Essentially if you aim to do farming it has to be as a long term goal, but meat and dukes are often easier to get so you might just want to eat meat or buy food from vendos and traders. With higher levels of LOTL farming becomes insanely productive. Maybe this was to cater to the multi-player groups who have a dedicated food producer. 

[meganoth]

47 minutes ago, theFlu said:

The simulation is likely correct; the conclusion from it is Not "nah, it'll be fine."

 

You plant three and are limited to two new seeds the moment you harvest no seeds.. this means you aren't keeping any spares. You'll need to. How many spares? There's no perfect amount, but 10 of a kind will be pretty hard to fail. Then again, if you have 10 seeds, why not plant them?

 

There's two main ways out from the risk a 3-seed farm poses at LotL 1 .. spend more skill points, or get more spare seeds. You'll just need to pick one

 

To recover immediately from one total failure with 3 seeds you need exactly 3 spare crops.

 

Naturally now you can ask what if there are two such failures in a row. 0 seeds from 3 seeds isn't exactly seldom, the chance is 1/8. Once you have such a failure, the chance for a second one immediately afterwards is 1/8.

But the thing is, you could still recover from two total failures in a row if you just turn all crops now to seeds and use nothing for cooking until you are back at 3 seeds. This is about a 50/50 chance it seems. It is likely that you will find a seed or some crops in the meantime and simply get back by "external infusion".

 

The more seeds you start with the less likely that total failure gets naturally.

 

 

 

[theFlu]

3 minutes ago, meganoth said:

To recover immediately from one total failure with 3 seeds you need exactly 3 spare crops.

That's a necessary addition; I was trying to avoid the math for @ElCabong, since it didn't seem to land. But my "at 10 seeds" seems quite intimidating in comparison to "spare 3 crops" .. even those small spares will (likely) have a great effect in the stability. 10 was just random from me, darnit..

[meganoth]

1 hour ago, ElCabong said:

I have planted enough seeds to not trust that simulation. I have planted three corn and nothing gave me a seed. That means I can only plant two.

 

But you also have 2 crops that you should save and then ...

 

1 hour ago, ElCabong said:

Sure enough, I didn't get any seed from those two.

 

And the 8 plus the 2 crops from before get you another chance of planting 2 seeds. It isn't over yet and there are about 5 more seasons of total failure before you would have to call a defeat.

 

The question is what is it that you risk? If your potato farm fails you either have to switch to pies or a meat diet, the latter is the fallback you can always do. Now if  potatoes are important to you, then yes, plant more. 10 in a row is almost nuclear reactor level safety.

Edited January 9, 2022 by meganoth (see edit history)

[warmer]

1 point in animal tracking and you never run out of feather or meat. There are many more rabbits and chickens around that you never see.

 

I used to farm, but now it isnt worth the effort or game time spent when I am playing SP and need to do everything myself.

[Cobretti_]

If I am not running Fortitude build I will go 1 point and I farm exactly like you, I only plant the seeds I loot or get returned. Early game carnivore diet is fine for me and later on when I have excess dukes I will buy fat, eggs and veggies from the trader. They are relatively cheap.