A detailed breakdown of loot odds for the Shotgun Messiah Crate

[Boidster]

Because I hate myself, I did the math. Note that when you open the crate, the below table is checked from 1-3 times.

 

Percent chance of getting loot from a Shotgun Messiah Crate

Weapon Parts* (all weapon types equally possible)	12%			Blue adds
Repair Kits (count of 2-3)	8%			up to 100%
Base Probability by Category	16%	16%	16%	24%	8%
Gamestage 1	Ranged	Melee	Armor	Ammo	Mod***
T0	16%	16%	16%	24%
T1					2.64%
T2					2.64%
T3					2.64%
Gamestage 10	Ranged	Melee	Armor	Ammo	Mod***
T0	14%	14%	14%	14%
T1	1%	1%	1%	10%	2.64%
T2					2.64%
T3					2.64%
Parts for same category**	1%	1%	1%
Gamestage 50	Ranged	Melee	Armor	Ammo	Mod***
T0				3.4%
T1	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%	18.4%	2.64%
T2	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%	2.2%	2.64%
T3					2.64%
Parts for same category**	7.5%	7.5%	7.5%
Gamestage 100	Ranged	Melee	Armor	Ammo	Mod***
T0				1%
T1	7%	7%	7%	17%	2.64%
T2	2%	2%	2%	6%	2.64%
T3					2.64%
Parts for same category**	7%	7%	7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* This is the "weaponParts" group, listed directly in the Shotgun Messiah container loot group.

** These parts come from the Ranged/Melee/Armor groups, so for example instead of a ranged weapon you might get ranged parts

*** The ModsAllScaled group is weird and appears to be using the wrong kind of probability group; if TFP writes well-formed XML and their parser won't accept the wrong type of group, then the percentages above are correct. Basically it's an even chance between T1/T2/T3 mods, if the crate chooses from the mods group.

[Boidster]

I have been playing around with this over the last few days and have ended up with some XSL transformations which allow me to import loot.xml into MS Access in such a way that I can, probably, answer almost any question about loot probabilities. I'm going to play with it to see if I can make a useful, sharable tool out of it, but for the moment I have put up the XSLT files in the post below.

 

 

[Roland]

2 hours ago, Boidster said:

I can, probably, answer almost any question about loot probabilities

 

Goodbye Mystery....Hello Meta

 

[Boidster]

Yes, if this morphs into anything useful, it will surely turn out to be a good-intention-paved road. When I say "answer any question" I mean for the purpose of "dispel myths about how broken the loot system is" or possibly "uncover unknown bugs/quirks in the data".

 

I fully expect it will be used by some to either min/max to seven decimal places, or rant about how such min/maxing is now RUINED by TFP. 😄

[Solomon]

If possible could you tell us what are the exact chances of finding any outside of current gamestage type items aka steel/iron on day 1?

[Kalen]

1 hour ago, Solomon said:

If possible could you tell us what are the exact chances of finding any outside of current gamestage type items aka steel/iron on day 1?

Doesn't it already do that?

 

GS 1, iron chance is 0,% steel 0%

GS 10, iron chance 1%, steel 0%

 

No idea what GS you could reasonably get to on Day 1.... would be an interesting test.

[Boidster]

4 hours ago, Solomon said:

If possible could you tell us what are the exact chances of finding any outside of current gamestage type items aka steel/iron on day 1?

Well, you'd have to define "outside of current gamestage" I guess, since by definition any scaled loot table will not allow anything from outside your gamestage. As Kalen points out, for the Shotgun Messiah crate there is 0% chance of finding any T1 items until GS 10. Same would be true for any container that uses the standard GS-scaled loot probabilities.

 

When I get done loading up the XML into my little project database, I ought to be able to figure out all possible pathways to T1 gear and perhaps find a hole someone could squirm through to get some early T1 loot.