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A detailed breakdown of loot odds for the Shotgun Messiah Crate


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Because I hate myself, I did the math. Note that when you open the crate, the below table is checked from 1-3 times.

 

Percent chance of getting loot from a Shotgun Messiah Crate

Weapon Parts*

(all weapon types equally possible)

12%     Blue adds  
Repair Kits (count of 2-3) 8%     up to 100%  
           
Base Probability by Category 16% 16% 16% 24% 8%
Gamestage 1 Ranged Melee Armor Ammo Mod***
T0 16% 16% 16% 24%  
T1         2.64%
T2         2.64%
T3         2.64%
Gamestage 10 Ranged Melee Armor Ammo Mod***
T0 14% 14% 14% 14%  
T1 1% 1% 1% 10% 2.64%
T2         2.64%
T3         2.64%
Parts for same category** 1% 1% 1%    
Gamestage 50 Ranged Melee Armor Ammo Mod***
T0       3.4%  
T1 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 18.4% 2.64%
T2 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 2.2% 2.64%
T3         2.64%
Parts for same category** 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%    
Gamestage 100 Ranged Melee Armor Ammo Mod***
T0       1%  
T1 7% 7% 7% 17% 2.64%
T2 2% 2% 2% 6% 2.64%
T3         2.64%
Parts for same category** 7% 7% 7%    
           

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* This is the "weaponParts" group, listed directly in the Shotgun Messiah container loot group.

** These parts come from the Ranged/Melee/Armor groups, so for example instead of a ranged weapon you might get ranged parts

*** The ModsAllScaled group is weird and appears to be using the wrong kind of probability group; if TFP writes well-formed XML and their parser won't accept the wrong type of group, then the percentages above are correct. Basically it's an even chance between T1/T2/T3 mods, if the crate chooses from the mods group.

Edited by Boidster (see edit history)
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I have been playing around with this over the last few days and have ended up with some XSL transformations which allow me to import loot.xml into MS Access in such a way that I can, probably, answer almost any question about loot probabilities. I'm going to play with it to see if I can make a useful, sharable tool out of it, but for the moment I have put up the XSLT files in the post below.

 

 

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Yes, if this morphs into anything useful, it will surely turn out to be a good-intention-paved road. When I say "answer any question" I mean for the purpose of "dispel myths about how broken the loot system is" or possibly "uncover unknown bugs/quirks in the data".

 

I fully expect it will be used by some to either min/max to seven decimal places, or rant about how such min/maxing is now RUINED by TFP. 😄

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1 hour ago, Solomon said:

If possible could you tell us what are the exact chances of finding any outside of current gamestage type items aka steel/iron on day 1?

Doesn't it already do that?

 

GS 1, iron chance is 0,% steel 0%

GS 10, iron chance 1%, steel 0%

 

No idea what GS you could reasonably get to on Day 1.... would be an interesting test.

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4 hours ago, Solomon said:

If possible could you tell us what are the exact chances of finding any outside of current gamestage type items aka steel/iron on day 1?

Well, you'd have to define "outside of current gamestage" I guess, since by definition any scaled loot table will not allow anything from outside your gamestage. As Kalen points out, for the Shotgun Messiah crate there is 0% chance of finding any T1 items until GS 10. Same would be true for any container that uses the standard GS-scaled loot probabilities.

 

When I get done loading up the XML into my little project database, I ought to be able to figure out all possible pathways to T1 gear and perhaps find a hole someone could squirm through to get some early T1 loot.

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