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# Technicus Broken

Damaden (US1)
US1 Posts:

**69**For a while now, I have avoided the technithief (haha) because intuitively it always felt "broken" to me. Allow me to explain.

When the technicus says the chance of success (COS) to upgrade is 10%, it should take an average of 10 clicks. Let's assume that the COS is independent from click to click i.e. repeated, independent Bernoulli trials. Then, we can ask some questions that can be answered using the geometric distribution like what is the mean, or average number of trials needed, for the first success? The mean is simply the inverse of the COS. So in this example, a 10% COS results in a mean of 1 / 0.1 = 10 clicks. We can also ask, what is the cumulative probability that we get a success in less than 50 clicks? Here again, the geometric distribution is appropriate and the answer is P(X<=50) = 1 - 0.9^50 = 99.5%.

I was sitting on a large sum of gold coins and I thought, let me try the technicus again to see if these probabilities feel right. The particular set I was working on had a COS was 6% for all four pieces. So, what is the average number of clicks before I see the first success? Answer: 1 / 0.06 = 17. Also, what is the probability I will see a success in 50 clicks or less? P(clicks <= 50) = 1 - .94^50 = 95.5%. Hmm, obviously not 100%, What about 100 clicks? P(X<=100) = 1 - 0.94^100 = 99.8%. OK, now we are talking about some serious bad luck if it takes more than 100 clicks. Well, just as I thought, of the four pieces I was trying to upgrade, it took me more than 50 clicks on 3 of the 4 pieces and one piece over 100 clicks before I gave up.

Now, it is well known that computers aren't capable of generating truly random numbers. It is probably even more likely that computer programmers are incompetent when it comes to implementing random number generators. Having experience in this field, I am always skeptical or curious to see just how a particular program or algorithm behaves. Does it exhibit truly random behavior? I have upgraded many, many pieces to +10 and I always count the clicks for each upgrade to get a sense if the probabilty is obeying the mean of a geometric distribution. And, for the first 10 levels they do i.e. my variances are small. But then something happens at the higher levels once the COS drops below 10%. Now, I am not saying it should NEVER take more than 50 or 100 clicks to upgrade an item when the COS is 6%, but that should be an outlier, not the norm. For example, what is the COS required to click unsuccessfully 50 times in a row 75% of the time? The answer is 0.6% which is more 10X less than the 6% advertised. So something is clearly wrong. But what?

The algorithm that GGS uses could be broken. The technicus could be reporting the wrong COS. The COS is not truly static or independent. But whatever is wrong, at the end of the day, whether or not the technicus algo follows the basic laws of probability is irrelevant because humans will quickly adapt their expectations to the true expected probabilities versus the reported probabilities. This is known as Bayesian statistics. I have never upgraded an item to +20. But, I have read other forum posts, and the fact that it takes literally hundreds of clicks on average to upgrade to +20 implies conditional probabilities on the order of only 1 to 3 in a thousand, and I would go as far to say that the true probabilities drop to below 10 in 1000 much sooner than +20. Maybe as early as +14. Which is fine. I understand that GGS prefers players to buy rubies versus clicking their way to +20.

But in case you were wondering, yes, the technithief is broken. Those reported chance of successes at the higher levels are actually a factor of ten less.

0

## Comments

3,3321st item

Level 18 = 3% = got it on 7th click

Level 19 = 2% = got it on 69th click

Level 19 = 2% = got it on 64th click

So, you tell me what my results mean compared to yours and the % they were at. Seems to work ok.

Just watched over 4M coins go away, but it was worth it. Thanks for getting my set to full power...…..

Sleep well.

I'll most likely kill you in the morning.

9782159781,362Community Manager ›3,332As for HOW I could have gotten those level 18's so quickly, got me to thinking. (I know, dangerous pastime for me) What if I had clicked 50 times before on those pieces and gave up. Now, going back to them and clicking the extra 7 and 16 times go me to the "success"? Does the system know how many times you have attempted on each piece, and use some formula to determine when you will be successful? Or even simpler than that - instead of being random - the number of attempts is predetermined from a pool of 1000s. When you get your piece, it comes with the corresponding amount of attempts it will take to Tech them up each level. This would make the attempts easy to track on system, AND be a process that GGS could point to and KNOW that the COS is actually correct for the whole - if not the individual.

Like I said, a dangerous pastime for me...…….

Sleep well.

I'll most likely kill you in the morning.

4423,332For example. it was quite fortuitous that I was able to get not one, but TWO level 18 pieces (with a 3% chance of success) in less than 20 clicks each. Then, on BOTH of my level 19's they were successful within 5 clicks of each other. 69 vs 64.

I agree, that odds and probability can look "odd" at times. But, COULD there be more to the way GGE does the Technicus than meets the eye?

Inquiring minds want to know...…….

Sleep well.

I'll most likely kill you in the morning.

978442And then compare them somehow...

69853Am still playing 8 years on ! - hi lvl 800 on new yrs eve (2017/18) !

Leading the Targaryens - PS interested in joining - PM any officer in Game :-)

taking a more relaxed role:-)

PS in top200 on uk 1 never botted or used a VPN - that's why it took 5 yrs to get to leg 800

5Each click independently has a 2% chance. The easiest way to calculate your actual odds are to look at your failure rate. at 2% your failure is 98%. To calculate your chance of success for 50 clicks you do 98% ^ 50 which would show a failure chance of 36.5% which means you have a 63.5% chance you will get success on the 50th click. But still means there is a chance not to succeed.

Even at 100 clicks there is still only an 87% chance you will have succeeded. It is possible you have not.

and at 150 you still only have a 95% chance of success. So there are some people who may still have not successfully reached the level by here.

There is no point where you get to 100% and as each click is independent there will never be consistent results. some days you will get lucky some you won't.

383These days I don't bother wasting my coins. I just sell them off when they fill up my equipment storage.

Regards,

Debbie

69696969693,332To help out, here they are..............

Wasso (INT3) said:

Sleep well.

I'll most likely kill you in the morning.