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Why am I finding no guns on Day 19?


egrace0555

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I've been playing this game for years. I took about an 8 month break and just came back to play the new Alpha. I am on Day 19 and haven't found one gun and barely any tools.I'm hoping this is just a fluke and not a glitch where I would need to start over. I used to find handguns on the first few days. It's pretty annoying to not be able to fend off a hoard.

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Welcome to A19 and the new progression loot system. Expect to find stone age tools/weapons in locked crates on shotgun messiahs and stuff like that.

Basically, if you want better loot, you gonna have to perk into lucky looter and level up as fast as possible to get a higher gamestage to "unlock" the weapons' possibility in loot.

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22 minutes ago, Liesel Weppen said:

What loot you can find depends now in A19 only on your gamestage. What day it is doesn't matter.

This is not true. What day it is absolutely matters, as it is added into gamestage. A level 10 player on day 3 has a different gamestage from a level 10 player on day 10.

 

39 minutes ago, egrace0555 said:

I am on Day 19 and haven't found one gun and barely any tools.

Assuming that you are making at least one level each day, you're GS 38-ish and those results would be moderately bad RNG results, if you're looting a lot. If you take a look at this thread you can see the breakdown of probability for the Shotgun Messiah chest. You ought to have somewhere in the range of a 10-15% chance of finding a T1 weapon in such a chest. Are you finding T1 armor, or mods, or ammo?

 

In the table you can see that by GS 50 the chances for T0 items drops off to nearly zero so I'd expect that you're not too far away from finding T1 stuff pretty regularly.

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I'm on day 6 of a brand new game and the trader has an AK-47 and the machine gun too. This is from trader Joel. The last game I played I didn't see s*** at day six from the traders.

 

I created a brand new random gen from alpha 19.4 I think. On day one he had 10 pistol parts and I bought them all. I haven't seen anything since.

 

Best I can tell this is all random. It's a dice roll. I haven't found a working workbench yet so having parts doesn't do me any good.

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7 minutes ago, Boidster said:

This is not true. What day it is absolutely matters, as it is added into gamestage. A level 10 player on day 3 has a different gamestage from a level 10 player on day 10.

Yep, and if the day is involved into gamestage calculation in the end still the gamestage is the only value that matters. And also what goes into gamestage is not purely the server day, but the "days alive" of the player. If a new player starts on a multiplayer server on day 378 he still starts with gamestage 1.

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8 hours ago, Slaasher said:

I would say very bad luck in response to the OP.  By the second week I had an AK, several pistols and either a basic shotgun or a hunting rifle - cant remember which but one of those 2.

Oh and of course a blunderbuss or 10.

I feel ya! I bought an AK from a trader but in quite a few years of playing, I've never been this far without seeing a pistol or AK. I was able to find a blunderbuss so I can't complain too much haha

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8 hours ago, Slaasher said:

I would say very bad luck in response to the OP.

I wouldn't say bad luck alone... If he dies 5 times a day, his gamestage would 22 lower than would otherwise be. I'm pretty sure a 22 gamestage difference that early affects the odds of finding a gun quite a lot.  Now, if he didn't die at all... And levelup up at a decent pace, that's a totally different story.

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44 minutes ago, Mastermind said:

I wouldn't say bad luck alone... If he dies 5 times a day, his gamestage would 22 lower than would otherwise be. I'm pretty sure a 22 gamestage difference that early affects the odds of finding a gun quite a lot.  Now, if he didn't die at all... And levelup up at a decent pace, that's a totally different story.

 

5 times a day!!!  .....   ??? .... !!!!

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On 9/19/2020 at 4:56 PM, egrace0555 said:

I've been playing this game for years. I took about an 8 month break and just came back to play the new Alpha. I am on Day 19 and haven't found one gun and barely any tools.I'm hoping this is just a fluke and not a glitch where I would need to start over. I used to find handguns on the first few days. It's pretty annoying to not be able to fend off a hoard.

 

Blunderbuss drops with the rest of the 'stone age' loot, and can be crafted from nothing more than a couple of metal pipes and some duct-tape, which seems to imply that there will be other 'stone tier' guns at some point. 

Fallout-4 style pipe-pistols and rifles would be really nice. (especially if blunderbuss ammo and other scrap-weapon ammo is changed to scrap to gunpowder, instead of paper, so we can make ammunition for the one we use from the loot of the ones we don't)

 

Yeah, it's kinda limiting that the only ranged weapons available at this point in the game are Bows and Shotguns. 

Hopefully it's temporary. 

 

 

As for tools... yeah. Finding a stone sledgehammer in a Working Stiff crate is a huge let-down. 

Personally, i'm hoping for scrap-tools at some point.

Scrap axes made from stop-signs. Scrap hammers made from iron railings with a cinderblock strapped to the end. That sort of thing. 

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actually nope .... most of time traders have  2-4 guns Q 1-4   on day  1 level 1  .. actually from the  10 i checked none of them had no firearms (not counting blunder .,... as its primitive gun)

 

well  dying  5 times a day and not looting toilets is probably only way to not have single gun on day  19  in alpha  19 (what a trustworthy coincidence )

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On 9/21/2020 at 11:17 PM, alanea said:

...and not looting toilets...

It occurred to me that in all my XML wankery I had never really looked into the "toilet gun". I figured the loot list for toilets used a scaled loot group like everything else, but with relaxed game stage restrictions.

 

image.png.8726235bce78368305ea580ff4acebbd.png

 

Pistols and knives have a flat 2.4% chance to show up in toilets, always. And always at Q1, never better. <wankery ensues>

<!-- Toilet, all tiered items are QL 1 -->
<lootcontainer id="65" count="0,2" size="6,1" sound_open="UseActions/open_toilet" sound_close="UseActions/close_toilet" loot_quality_template="qualQ1Template">
    <item name="gunHandgunT1Pistol" prob="0.025"/>
    <item name="meleeWpnBladeT1HuntingKnife" prob="0.025"/>
    <item name="drinkJarRiverWater" count="1,3"/>
</lootcontainer>

(it sez 0.025 - 2.5% - but it's actually 2.4% due to math wankery that I won't get into)

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6 hours ago, Boidster said:

Pistols and knives have a flat 2.4% chance to show up in toilets, always. And always at Q1, never better.

yep .. its not too small chance considering most poi containa tleast one .. but many even  5+  (or 30+ : ) )

 

its definitely good source very early for basic weapon

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On 9/19/2020 at 9:41 AM, Boidster said:

This is not true. What day it is absolutely matters, as it is added into gamestage. A level 10 player on day 3 has a different gamestage from a level 10 player on day 10.

 

-snipped-

I have noted this being somewhat key in the loot I find. After a wave I feel like my loot increases pretty well, and the later the waves, the better as well. I also tend to gain more than a level or two on hoard nights, which is also a GS contributor. Also loot containers seem to have a certain "roll" to them. I have the worst luck with backpacks and gym bags. Moderate luck with cars and excellent luck with trash cans (the small ones) and gun bags. Safes can be hit or miss for me, usually having items I don't typically use. Working Stiff crates used to be god tier back in A18, but now feel a bit less so. Pass n Gas crates almost always have something good, no matter my level/day. I know a large portion of this is due to the new progression, because I used to strike gold and find augers within my first week to pair alongside my level three guns. So loot tables are nerfed universally based on your GS and day. From what I can gather, at least. 

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14 hours ago, Lenny Lettuce Lips said:

So loot tables are nerfed universally based on your GS and day. From what I can gather, at least.

Not universally, no. And day number (modified by any deaths) factors into Gamestage, so it matters yes, but it's just the final Gamestage number which is used to adjust probabilities by many, but not all loot lists.

 

Gamestage = ([Your Level] + [Days Alive*, but capped at Your Level]) * 1.2

*Days Alive gets modified downward every time you die

 

You said you've had good luck with the small trash containers. I break that down below.

Warning - much XML wankery and a little math wankery ahead. Do not read if falling asleep would be dangerous to you right now.

 

Spoiler

 

Every loot container is tied to a loot list, which the specifies either specific items or groups of items. The odds of getting any of those items may be scaled by your Gamestage. So for example, here is the small domed trash can from blocks.xml:


<block name="cntDomedTrashCanFull">
  ...
  <property name="LootList" value="16"/>
  ...
</block>

And here is loot list #16 (loot.xml):


<lootcontainer id="16" count="0,2" size="6,2" loot_quality_template="qualBaseTemplate">
    <item group="garbage"/>
</lootcontainer>

So that container "rolls" RNG against the "garbage" loot group and picks from 0 to 2 items. Right away you can see that there is a quality template in effect, "qualBaseTemplate". I'll get into that at the end of this diatribe. For now, let's look at what is in "garbage":


<lootgroup name="garbage">
    <item group="junk"/>
</lootgroup>

<shakes tiny fist> THANKS TFP, REAL HELPFUL. Okay let's look at "junk" (insert crude joke here):

 

(This is just a subset of the group - "junk" is very large [insert other crude joke here]):


<lootgroup name="junk">
    <item name="drinkJarEmpty"/>
    <item name="drinkCanEmpty"/>
    <item name="drugPainkillers"/>
    <item name="oldCash" count="1,6" prob="0.3"/>
    <item name="resourceOil" count="2,6"/>
    <item name="resourceDuctTape" count="1,3"/>
    <item group="rottenFood"/>
    <item group="booksAllScaled"/>
    <item group="groupQuestChallenge" prob="0.11"/>
    <item group="groupTreasureMaps" prob="0.092"/>
    <item name="resourceSewingKit" count="1,2"/>
</lootgroup>

So a few things to note:

  • As noted in the original loot list, from 0 to 2 items are picked from this list; it can pick the same item twice also
  • Some items have their own "count" so you can get for example 2-6 oil bottles which count as just one "item"; if it picks oil twice, then maybe you get 12 of them!
  • Some items have their own "prob(ability)" value; this does not mean exactly what it says. There is math wankery to figure out the true probability; in general every item in the group without a "prob" value has a 3% chance (or so), and a prob="0.3" (like the oldCash) would be approximately 1% chance.
  • There are more groups within this group, e.g. "rottenFood" and "booksAllScaled"; each of these can be further expanded (no I'm not going to do that) and yet more probabilities are embedded in them. Determining probability of Item X gets hairy really quickly

Since we're talking about GS-scaled loot, here's a quick peek into "booksAllScaled" which is a GS-scaled loot group:


<lootgroup name="booksAllScaled">
    <item group="perkBooks" prob="133"/>
    <item group="schematicsModsAndGeneralCommon" prob="60"/>
    <item group="schematicsToolsCommon" prob="7"/>
    <item group="schematicsWeaponsArmorCommon" prob="36"/>
    <item group="schematicsVehiclesCommon" prob="10"/>
    <item group="schematicsElectrical" prob="13"/>
    <item group="groupQuestChallenge" prob="10"/>
</lootgroup>

The probabilities here are not scaled; math wankery gives for example 49.4% chance for "perkBooks" and 2.6% chance for "schematicsToolsCommon". WHERE IS MY GAMESTAGE-SCALED LOOT DAMMIT?!? Well it's hiding in "schematicsToolsCommon" (for example):


<lootgroup name="schematicsToolsCommon">
    <item group="schematicsToolsT0"/>
    <item group="schematicsToolsT1" loot_prob_template="ProbT1"/>
    <item group="schematicsToolsT2" loot_prob_template="ProbT2"/>
</lootgroup>

There you go - the "ProbT1" and "ProbT2" probability templates - which I am not going to go into - are chock-full of GS ranges to determine when and at what probability you will find a T0, T1, or T2 tool schematic.

 

Way up there we had "qualBaseTemplate", remember that? Well, funny thing - the "junk" group does not, after fully expanding all sub-groups, produce any items with a quality level. So the quality template is moot in this example. But for completeness and to make sure you are fully asleep after reading this, here's a tiny snippet of what's in that probability template - the part that applies for Gamestage 0 through 9 (it says "level" but it means Gamestage):


<qualitytemplate level="0,9" default_quality="1">
  <loot quality="1" prob="0.764"/>
  <loot quality="2" prob="0.765"/>
  <loot quality="3" prob="1"/>
</qualitytemplate>

This means that if a loot container produces a quality-having item (a tool, weapon, or armor), then there is (not showing the math) a 30% chance it will be Q1, 30% of Q2 item, and 40% chance for Q3.

 

The main takeway: all lootable containers, including zombie drop bags, work using the above techniques. Loot lists lead to loot groups which lead to more loot groups, and everything has either a fixed or GS-scaled probability.

 

 

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6 hours ago, Boidster said:

Not universally, no. And day number (modified by any deaths) factors into Gamestage, so it matters yes, but it's just the final Gamestage number which is used to adjust probabilities by many, but not all loot lists.

 

Gamestage = ([Your Level] + [Days Alive*, but capped at Your Level]) * 1.2

*Days Alive gets modified downward every time you die

 

You said you've had good luck with the small trash containers. I break that down below.

Warning - much XML wankery and a little math wankery ahead. Do not read if falling asleep would be dangerous to you right now.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Every loot container is tied to a loot list, which the specifies either specific items or groups of items. The odds of getting any of those items may be scaled by your Gamestage. So for example, here is the small domed trash can from blocks.xml:



<block name="cntDomedTrashCanFull">
  ...
  <property name="LootList" value="16"/>
  ...
</block>

And here is loot list #16 (loot.xml):



<lootcontainer id="16" count="0,2" size="6,2" loot_quality_template="qualBaseTemplate">
    <item group="garbage"/>
</lootcontainer>

So that container "rolls" RNG against the "garbage" loot group and picks from 0 to 2 items. Right away you can see that there is a quality template in effect, "qualBaseTemplate". I'll get into that at the end of this diatribe. For now, let's look at what is in "garbage":



<lootgroup name="garbage">
    <item group="junk"/>
</lootgroup>

<shakes tiny fist> THANKS TFP, REAL HELPFUL. Okay let's look at "junk" (insert crude joke here):

 

(This is just a subset of the group - "junk" is very large [insert other crude joke here]):



<lootgroup name="junk">
    <item name="drinkJarEmpty"/>
    <item name="drinkCanEmpty"/>
    <item name="drugPainkillers"/>
    <item name="oldCash" count="1,6" prob="0.3"/>
    <item name="resourceOil" count="2,6"/>
    <item name="resourceDuctTape" count="1,3"/>
    <item group="rottenFood"/>
    <item group="booksAllScaled"/>
    <item group="groupQuestChallenge" prob="0.11"/>
    <item group="groupTreasureMaps" prob="0.092"/>
    <item name="resourceSewingKit" count="1,2"/>
</lootgroup>

So a few things to note:

  • As noted in the original loot list, from 0 to 2 items are picked from this list; it can pick the same item twice also
  • Some items have their own "count" so you can get for example 2-6 oil bottles which count as just one "item"; if it picks oil twice, then maybe you get 12 of them!
  • Some items have their own "prob(ability)" value; this does not mean exactly what it says. There is math wankery to figure out the true probability; in general every item in the group without a "prob" value has a 3% chance (or so), and a prob="0.3" (like the oldCash) would be approximately 1% chance.
  • There are more groups within this group, e.g. "rottenFood" and "booksAllScaled"; each of these can be further expanded (no I'm not going to do that) and yet more probabilities are embedded in them. Determining probability of Item X gets hairy really quickly

Since we're talking about GS-scaled loot, here's a quick peek into "booksAllScaled" which is a GS-scaled loot group:



<lootgroup name="booksAllScaled">
    <item group="perkBooks" prob="133"/>
    <item group="schematicsModsAndGeneralCommon" prob="60"/>
    <item group="schematicsToolsCommon" prob="7"/>
    <item group="schematicsWeaponsArmorCommon" prob="36"/>
    <item group="schematicsVehiclesCommon" prob="10"/>
    <item group="schematicsElectrical" prob="13"/>
    <item group="groupQuestChallenge" prob="10"/>
</lootgroup>

The probabilities here are not scaled; math wankery gives for example 49.4% chance for "perkBooks" and 2.6% chance for "schematicsToolsCommon". WHERE IS MY GAMESTAGE-SCALED LOOT DAMMIT?!? Well it's hiding in "schematicsToolsCommon" (for example):



<lootgroup name="schematicsToolsCommon">
    <item group="schematicsToolsT0"/>
    <item group="schematicsToolsT1" loot_prob_template="ProbT1"/>
    <item group="schematicsToolsT2" loot_prob_template="ProbT2"/>
</lootgroup>

There you go - the "ProbT1" and "ProbT2" probability templates - which I am not going to go into - are chock-full of GS ranges to determine when and at what probability you will find a T0, T1, or T2 tool schematic.

 

Way up there we had "qualBaseTemplate", remember that? Well, funny thing - the "junk" group does not, after fully expanding all sub-groups, produce any items with a quality level. So the quality template is moot in this example. But for completeness and to make sure you are fully asleep after reading this, here's a tiny snippet of what's in that probability template - the part that applies for Gamestage 0 through 9 (it says "level" but it means Gamestage):



<qualitytemplate level="0,9" default_quality="1">
  <loot quality="1" prob="0.764"/>
  <loot quality="2" prob="0.765"/>
  <loot quality="3" prob="1"/>
</qualitytemplate>

This means that if a loot container produces a quality-having item (a tool, weapon, or armor), then there is (not showing the math) a 30% chance it will be Q1, 30% of Q2 item, and 40% chance for Q3.

 

The main takeway: all lootable containers, including zombie drop bags, work using the above techniques. Loot lists lead to loot groups which lead to more loot groups, and everything has either a fixed or GS-scaled probability.

 

 

The end line of that breakdown really summarizes about what I've always pictured mentally as the function. Growing up with pen and paper RPGs kinda helps me understand what's likely occurring behind the scenes. Thank you for the break down though, that was really insightful! Maybe I'll start tinkering with .xml files, it doesn't seem too complicated.

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